Things I’m betting on for the next 10 years

It's been a crazy past few years, but things are only getting wilder. Here’s where I think the biggest opportunities to build great businesses are in the next decade:

1. Leveling up America’s supply chain

Over the past several years, the world has finally come to understand how important our supply chains are. When it comes to getting things delivered to the right place at the right time at a reasonable cost, it’s clear that America is in a very bad place. 

And with rising tensions between the US and China, now is the time to radically overhaul how we think about every aspect of logistics. In the new world order, the best offense will be a strong supply chain. 

While there are many areas across the supply chain that will produce large winners, the spaces I’m most excited about are:

  • Digitizing workflows: automate clunky manual pen and paper processes, improve tracking / tracing visibility and make it better, faster and cheaper for all parties to transact.

  • Working through the supply chain labor crisis: make it easier for companies to hire / retain / train truckers, warehouse associates, port workers. 

  • Reshoring & Nearshoring: decrease reliance on China for manufacturing by moving production and operations to the US, LATAM and India.

2. The rise of B2B Marketplaces + Vertical SaaS

When we talk about marketplaces, the ones that immediately come to mind are all consumer facing:

  • If you want a ride, there’s Uber.

  • If you want a place to stay, there’s Airbnb.

  • If you want to buy something, there’s Amazon.

  • If you want someone to shop for your groceries, there’s Instacart.

  • Et cetera. Et cetera. Et cetera.

If you’re a founder building a marketplace, there’s some bad news and some (really) good news.

  • The bad news… Over the last 25 years, Craigslist has been unbundled to create multiple marketplaces for almost every consumer category imaginable. If you want to start a consumer marketplace today, you’ll likely find it crowded and hard to compete against established players with strong network effects.

  • The good news… if you want to build a B2B marketplace, there are lots of massive ($100B+) categories up for grabs. Even in a post-COVID world, only ~5-10% of B2B transactions happen online and 50% of sales are still being done over the phone, email, fax or in person meetings. Buyers and sellers are looking for an easier way to do business in these inefficient, highly fragmented markets. Once you establish a beachhead, there are also attractive products that you can layer on top to make your platform even stickier (ex: workflow tools, factoring, lending). And one more thing… A lot of the strategies & tactics that work in consumer can also be used to scale B2B marketplaces.

Incredible companies like Faire (independent retail), Farmers Business Network (agriculture), ACV Auction (used cars), and Torch (medical supplies) are paving the way for what looks like will be a golden era for B2B marketplaces. And it’s still VERY early.

3. America’s aging population

By 2030, 25% of the US population will be over the age of 65. From surging demand for healthcare to over 10,000 baby boomers retiring every day, we are woefully unprepared for the impact this seismic shift will have on society.

I strongly believe this will be one of the strongest tailwinds of the next 20 years - there is a unique, massive chance to both help millions of Americans and build incredible businesses.

A few areas I’ll bet on include:

  • Healthcare: tech enabled homecare to help seniors to age in place, better non emergency medical transit, emphasis on mental health (adoption is lower than with younger generations), matching patients to assisted living and nursing homes, decisions around health and long term care insurance.

  • Financial planning: navigating decisions around retirement including how to structure your portfolio and when to take social security, selling your business, career advice for seniors who don’t want to retire.

  • Real estate: more 55+ communities, building living communities near major healthcare systems, retrofitting existing homes to be more accessible to easily allow people to age in place.

  • Buying businesses from retiring owners: MicroAcquire for Non-Tech acquisitions, building a HoldCo to acquire great, profitable businesses at attractive prices and grow EBITDA over time.

4. Increasing talent density

While this isn’t a core area of focus for me, I’m fascinated by finding better ways to:

  • Connect talent from great companies. Why do the Flexport and Uber people not know each other? Why are employees from Lattice and Rippling not connected? It feels like if there were a better way to connect former employees from companies, there would be more great companies started.

  • Company alumni database - why does this not exist? Should be able to see who’s in what city, working at which company and what they’re looking for next. Would be an easier way to accelerate hiring and co-founder discovery.

Thanks for reading! If you (or someone you know) is solving problems in one of these areas, I’d love to hear more.